tv Fast Money CNBC May 8, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
that will do it for us on closing bell. thank you for being with us and follow me on twitter and google plus. fast money begins now. melissa lee, take it away. >> tonight on fast money, the parthenon and stocks keep sliding as they fail to put together a government. >> is there anything to buy? >> enough to drive you to drink. >> i started with a mojito in the 6:00 hour. >> plus after hours action. can disney avenge the sellers that knocked it down to an all time high? fired up. bk found something to buy. fresh from the training floor, this is fast money. live from the nasdaq market site, i'm melissa lee and this is the two-month low and we bounced big time. where are you buy something. >> i was buy skpig thought the
price action was positive. this morning it was misplaced. in my view the european elections are positive. the biggest fear is they were moving towards austerity into a depression. any movement away and towards growth is a positive direction for that. therefore that takes the depression off the table in europe. i bought wells fargo this afternoon. they were actually trading very well and came out with news about how much they would from have to take or the write down if they got downgraded less than december. they are exposed to the u.s. and housing market which i like. that's why i bought them. >> you bought into the sector that has been a barometer for the crisis. overall banks in europe were weak and remain weak into the close. we saw that carry over and that is one area of the market that did not bounce as much as the rest of the market. >> that was disturbing. yesterday if you recall they started out strong and have not
come back. i agree in terms of going towards growth. however i think it will be a bumpier road and the pressure will still be down as you figure out. the euro is going to fall apart. the whole eu will fall apart. maybe it's not a depression, but a global recession. >> i don't know if they fall apart. that is fairly catastrophic. if there is growth, you don't have a mild recession. that is not falling apart. germany has to pay for it. i will agree with you. it will be a bumpy ride, but for the time being, we will start pricing in the fact that it's better in europe. >> in terms of the multinationals, did you find buying opportunities there in today's session over the past couple of days. that is an area that paired losses as we did pick up steam into the afternoon hours. >> we didn't do any buying and i
am concerned. it doesn't make me not buy something. we have been looking and waiting for the right time. i want to be long there. even with the multiyear cycle that will play out. i was surprised the market came back as much as it did. just the market's uncertainty, it is clear. >> you can make an argument that it's great or terrible. they could be reasonable arguments and once again, i am confounded by gold. >> that was truly an alarm early on in the markets during trading when gold didn't find the support here. it is an asset that doesn't seem to be risk on or risk off. everything that used to tie gold to the trade doesn't tie it anymore. >> for wame one of the overowned assets. if you look at the filings over the last year and a half, a lot of people got concentrated in
it. it bifurcated a little bit. you bought a bank that has nothing to do with the issues and the rocky road that they lay out in a lot of ways. morgan stanley and citigroup are put in the penalty boxes. to me, i have been kind of early as usual in the short structures and these sorts of things, but it did trim both in morgan stanley and it trims shorts and took the profits in. to me, huh these things in front of the market and the s&p it is down in the last week since the highs last tuesday. we are going get a technical bounce. it was 180. >> let's be clear. you are not more bullish on the bank. >> no, i'm not. we are in the beginning of may. the last two years, the
beginning of may and what it looked like. >> the reason why, why i bought wfc because it's not exposed to europe. >> i bought jpmorgan and it's a core position and will do very well to pick up a lot of shares. one thing i want to talk to in terms of gold and cara mentioned the best thing you can say about the market is the orilations have died down. risk off, it goes down. we see the bonds. they are not as correlated as they used to be. the best thing to find value even though i am flat and that means the stock moves more quickly and violently. i am short those. the correlation is coming off and shows me there is opportunity to make money. >> you can dwitd correlation from the options market and how much is expected there. that has been dropping steadily
through the beginning of the year. i would add that's a positive and you can see it's a risk factor. if you see more and that rolls into higher correlation, a couple of things. the price is going to trade as a function of correlation. that's what people should be looking at. you want to press longs into a rocky period. the early part of the summer is. right now is a decent part. >> high flying momentum stocks. take a look at shares of chipotle and sales force and ralph lauren. priceline. up significantly this year, but lost altitude on the day. what does it mean in terms of the stock. they have an early going.
>> these stocks are very crowded trades and they look at the gross characteristics going forward. i thought they could hide out in the names. when people are hitting the cell button and heading for the door at the same time, look at the move. this was traded off of fossil. at one point, this was down a lot in a short period of time. at some point, $7 off of that. >> were you a buyer off of the things i listed? >> no and here's why. chipotle at $400. they were breaking key technical levels. at times of uncertainty, people fall on certainty inputs and technicals are a big one. you have the break downs and people hit the subway. >> rl is a european. there was a soft macro economic environment in europe. do you take that and you draw that to a ralph lauren and others that have heavy exposure
in europe? >> it's a reasonable conclusion to come to. ralph lauren is north of 20 plus earnings down $5. it could be down a lot more. at that valuation, it's like a tiffany or a coach or ralph lauren. there so many risks at a valuation like that. >> perversely, people thought there was safety in these stocks that had inflated valuations. they are anything but safe because they are vulnerable. at starbucks, people say if they miss, i don't want to buy. they had issues in same store sales. >> equity marks down for the fifth straight day and they short up ifs and it may be the trade of the decade and it's the
largest position they have taken. always great to speak with you. >> why are you taking an outside position like this? >> the equity market is approaching the point where it's getting too negative on the economic growth and the bond market with 1.85% 10-year yield is too convinced that growth is going to falter. the good news is being ignored that news is being emphasized. you can look at the jobs reports. the most important feature to the report was how broad the release was. every sector industry looked to expand the manufacturing sector that was strong. people forget in the impact in crude oil prices and gasoline prices. they said late during the day that they are there by half the summer closings of factories.
we will see stability in new york. in bk's camp, we will see economic releases and sustaining recover. 2.5% realty. the flight to safety and a premium that is so huge and will dissipate. historically the long bond trades to a premium to nominal gdp. that's in inflation. that's against the yield. >> this can be the trade of the decade and the trade of the last two decades was shorting japanese government bonds with all the same arguments you had. >> i don't think u.s. is japan. >> they had deleveraging and the same economic scenario.
>> we have sustainable growth and japan has an aging population and a tremendous difference in the dynamics and debt to gdp and these are points i made at w the value investing conference and hope that was talking about that. >> doug, i agree with you that bonds necessary a bubble. and the people i talked to said high yield or governments. their markets are fully valued. however i disagree with you on economic growth. as a matter of fact it has been very, very tough for companies to get the workers. that will continue and the jobs numbers will be this month and last. maybe we bottomed in housing, but it's not lifting up. i have to disagree and the guidance from a lot of companies
was not strong on the tail end of the earnings season. >> i disagree on employment. i think the indicators improveed from a year ago and claims are much lower. they are consistent with the gains in excess of 200,000. you deduct 20,000 in government workers and they are running at 180,000 per month. we are starting to move in my view closer to potential and the holding is going to be fuelled by housing and housing formations are recovering. the nahb are five-year highs while inventories are at five-year lows. you are wrong on corporate profit and it turned positive and the first quarter was by over 500 basis points and the magnitude of revisions has been
associated with a rise in the stock market. >> you clearly disagree. you move yund that. we have about 20 seconds here. is a corollary to your trade, is the other second biggest position long in the stock market? >> yeah, i am increasing my position substantial low in the last four days of weakness and under no illusion that they are poised to move up into the promised land, but i see in the crime to higher levels, i recognize the technical damage and relatively ambiguous economic releases and a recover to move higher. i feel strongly that those with an intermediate term perspective which i define as being rewarded and richly rewarded and quickly i believe that history rhymes.
we very may well be in may of 1987. the low was established then and an 18 to 20% move. it's great to speak with you. because of course last year we set up in the same exact fashion. we did this on "options action," a checklist of everything that happened to this date. a big drop in oil and a big frothy internet ipo and the market is occupy. here we are. last year we stalled. >> i agree with doug in terms of the conclusion and end of the time frame in nine months. you can get an entry. >> you mentioned mcdonald's. they beat europe and missed other comps. >> they are still weakening. >> it is decelerating. that was an interesting point. this is going on. some of these big multinationals that touched on it earlier, i
needed all that high in january. it's down about 8% from there and to me in a lot of way, a lot of these are kind of telling the story. >> let's move on here and they return to the market at least briefly. they spiked roughly at least 10% around the level around middays a sell off intensifies. let's go back to you and what you make of the turn around. what if you take a look at vicks futures. >> it's interesting because the futures remain in contention. the futures are higher and what's interesting is dan was mentioning that as you take a look, it's not the only derivative area that people should be paying attention to. he was making a good point that he was taking a look at the financials. you need to make sure that when you look at the vicks or at the price of options, a single stock thaw are looking at, the pricing
in terms of what is consistent. you see credit guys getting worried. those are things you need to worry about. you look at the forward term and i still see rocky roads for the next 60 days. >> you are looking at city. >> mike and were talking about and it's great to have the structure. and the truth is they don't keep as close of an eye on the financials where they are very e keeping an eye on the chart. this is over two years of implied volatility versus cds. it picked up in the last couple of months about 60 to 70 bits as high. citigroup has flat lined. there could be opportunities if you think that-it's a debt
crisis. a name levered to the crisis like citigroup, you can protect longs and consider stock replacement because on a relative basis, it's cheap. >> coming up, we continue to make sense of the rocky day on wall street. a 25-year veteran has got ideas on how to protect what he sees as one of the biggest threats. the latest read on disney and much more fast straight ahead. [ man announcing ] what we created here. f.
they join us on the fast line and they were lady to impact this particular quarter. what was the surprise here? good or bad? >> i think the surprise versus what we were looking for was really on the expenses. they are broadcasting the segment and lost a lot of cost tied to the oprah show on news production costs on abc and the park segment. profits were better. they got an insurance from japan and the second quarter. all that was helped. overall is good quarter. the core of disney was consistent with what we were looking for. that's a great driver. jaulia was on the conference call and got developments here. julia. >> that's right. i wanted to bring you headlines and that's that is not in the quarter, but they made
valuations to not just the studio, but the company saying disney will continue to build on the franchise. disney does have an iron man three in the works. in addition those three, the related movies and there is a sequel in the works. they said that the demand for products has been huge. it sounds like from my conversation in the last hour, they can't make it fast enough and they are flying off the shelves. this will move not only to the studio, but have the impact across the divisions. the other highlights from the earnings call. i ger focused in on china and the resort in the work success built. it will be important for international growth. he said they are optimistic about the parks and resorts including at hong kong disney. i want to get in here saying
higher rates and the network up 6% and going into the all important up front sales period, the expectations are very strong and the quarter to date pricing is up over 20% over last year's rates. back over to you. >> i want to go back out to analysts who is on the fast line and sorry for the interruption, they were talking about the avengers and they had an estimate as to per share what the impact on an estimate of the share over the first quarter. >> i'm not out with an estimate yet. the move is going to be a great contribute. they had a great opening weekend. the domestic box office under 500 million, but if it hangs on, it could be better than "avatar." it would be the biggest movie of
all time. too early to say the contributors, but all the negative sentiment just a couple of months ago. >> when you look at the company, a number of different business lines and what model do you use and the media is the biggest part. how do you come to a valuation? >> disney, i think you should change the name of the company. more than half of earnings are driven by almost all espn and they have a network in a position of strength. great leverage to charge to carry the network. that's what drives disney. the rest is helpful, but the core is espn. >> thanks a lot and we appreciate your time. disney is up in the after hours session. >> very quickly. davy crock et was a big character way back. how fitting. i like the stock.
>> what train, buddy? >> i will take it. i am surprised disney is not up more. >> they came out with the average forecast for the summer forecast. good news for that. good stuff happening in asia. i think the trade is buy disney. >> this is trading at 12-year highs here. >> the earnings should be agreeing over 12 years. >> sale are growing at 5%. we talked about this really potentially volatile period in the economy. >> people are going to the parks. >> you would be able to pick the bottom and the top? >> buy it tomorrow on the opening.
let's see. i am saying -- >> didn't we have the discussion in the low 30s? >> it actually went down like 10%. >> where is it now? >> people don't hold on to stocks the way you do. >> i have it go back to my corner. >> different time horizons. back to your corners. next trade, don't think inflation is coming around any time soon. think again. john spent years protecting his assets and the global hedge funds. john joins us with long as well as short strategies to make money. great to have you with us. i guess this is an appropriate name. what do you see in terms of inflation? >> short-term is very deflationary or deleveraging in the banking system and we know
that the fed and the ecb and bank of japan and swiss national bank, you can go on and on. they are all trying to inject liquidity and money into the system as possible to keep the gain going and drive inflation up. >> you have three inflation protection tools here. i want you to help us walk through. how do you use the buckets and how are you investing? commodities. >> sure. they are driven by supply and demand, but ultimately the equation is a big part of that. the effects will affect things like precious metals and gold and copper. then oil and industrial products. inflation is endemic to the monetary systems of all the major blocks and it's created a good bid for commodities over the past three or four years and i think that's going to
ultimately come out on the back side of this delevering. >> emerging market, where do you see value right now? >> we don't think china will have a hard landing. they will have a soft landing. that helps the trade. around the world, emerging markets is where the capital will be fuel-injected by the central banks is flowing. the markets are a good way to avoid the banking and the housing problems and the labor market problems of the developed world. >> it's brian kelly. i noticed you liked high yield u.s. bonds. can you explain how that works? woo f we have inflation, they are going up and down. >> sure. high yield bonds trade with a short duration and you don't have the exposure to the 30-year sector as exposure to five years. the yields on the five-year, 7% that, with a fed fund to is yielded thea red at the bottom
line. that's where the juiciest returns are obtained. >> good to see you again. so you say there is going to be deflationary environment which i agree with. the central banks reject the capital for at least the last year and the u.s. in the last few years and prices have been under pressure most recently. when do you see the inflection that prices pick up and you see them? >> bernanke has been saying things are data-dependent and given the recent data out over the last 48 hours will be more and more difficult for bernanke to resist that need and talk about a qe 3. >> we are going to leave it there. thanks for your time. from the armored wolf fund. this sort of dove tail speaks with the trade you made today that did not see pressure. it was the stand up.
>> it was in the -- primarily the reason, if you want to talk about inflation, it is still buying an awful lot. today we saw one of the highest premiums paid in new orleans for corn going to export. that is positive and in an inflationary environment, you want to own the products and grains and that type of thing. >> coming up next, gary komen ski has details from the mgm ceo. why they are betting luck on our neighbors to the north. what's next for online gambling and it's an interview you won't want to miss.
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nat gas starts out lower. prices spiked at around 2:00 and finished higher by more than 4%. what caused the move? this happens on a day that anadarko is poised to get u.s. government approval for drilling all these wells that would put one billion vcf a day on the market. >> there is the supply and demand dynamics and what is starting to change is the use of natural gas. we have an awful lot more and some of the new regulations coming out. they may reduce the coal plants in the u.s. you are starting to see what people turn to. not only that, on the consumer side, people are switching to natural gas. all these things coming into play. they had a nice set up and they trade technically. >> what would it take to get you
to get into the nat gas stocks? >> i have been looking at it and i don't think i missed it. i will get another chance. you have to bet on a very, very hot summer to deplete the gas. they will give gas away because the pipelines cannot hold anymore. >> cnbc's capital markets. gary comin s-- komen ski reportd a first quarter loss and gary joins us with more. gary? >> i heard you talking about the summit and boy, it is very hot in las vegas. as it always is here. the thing about jim was the fact that jim and i have known jim for 20 plus years, he is a former wall street analyst. he understands better than most ceos what they get about a company and what it doesn't get.
we identified three areas of growth that i think they are missing. take a electric at the areas they pointed out. >> next year is the golden year. some of the debt that is secure and not called comes due in 2013. being able to refinance and today's rates. that is a game changer for the company. a tremendous game changer can generate tremendous cash flow and access very important international customer of 2012. that will be the year of internet gaming. we have a deal that will allow us to be out of the gates probably before anyone else. there is also another opportunity which facebook illustrat illustrates. the convergence of the gamers and the folks in social games and the gaming industry. those industries are starting to collide and the result will be interesting.
>> with so many analysts focusing on the gaming opportunities in asia. quite interesting that we talked about toronto and the huge opportunities and the internet gaming that jim believes will be a significant contributor going. the first point about the debt refinancing and you talk about what the fed has done and we have given the refinancing and the opportunity they have out there. they are reducing the expense. they have that on a refinance. they have not picked up on that and that's the type of thinking a former analyst who provide for the huge opportunity. >> gary, we look forward to seeing you later on in the show. >> wait. wait. before you go. i ran into jim at the bellagio, i asked an important question
and if we gotting to and tried to have a push off contest, what do you think would win. >> karen who is back here tonight, she challenged me to a tennis match a couple of years back. if karen and i had to have a push off contest as a result, who do you think will take that and be victorious. >> she sneaky strong. >> they have a lot of enthusiasm. >> i'm on the other side of that trade for sure. >> they are nice and sitting down. >> you would crush them. >> see you later on. the editor and before we go, we should note an sbim chairman and changes.
that mean that is the chairman is out and that's the headline and the chairman is out after he allegedly sold stock to meet the margin calls and bring more trading lower on the news that the chairman is out. forget about the announcement of the interim chairman and board changes and all that. the headline is they kaufted the chairman. we will continue tracking the chairman. there is still reason to respect the bulls. he is making the case, straight ahead. this man is about to be the millionth customer. would you mind if i go ahead of you? instead we had someone go ahead of him and win fifty thousand dollars. congratulations you are our one millionth customer. people don't like to miss out on money that should have been theirs. that's why at ally we have the raise your rate 2-year cd. you can get a one-time rate increase if our two-year rate goes up.
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>> per breaking news we have been following. green mountain coffee is an interim chairman of the board that has to do with stock sales. we will get more details on this story from tyler mathson. >> the story is a little bit -- stick with me. the company ousted the chairman and lead director. the chairman was robert p stiller and william d davis who was the lead director.
they have been ousted and replaced by two other individuals. the director and chair of the committee. they will be chair and you can see they are trading down. mr. stiller and mr. davis, the ousted members who lost their positions had a brokerage firm and that firm then sold shares of green mountain coffee roasters in what was a margin call and green mountain as you know, the stock has been moving down in recent days. and the margin call sales violated the trading window on green mountain coffee positions. these were not insignificant sales. it was a 5.5 million shares of the company. they are sold from the accounts and the trading window, pursuant
to the company's internal trading policy. the result is the chairman of the board and the lead director have been ousted from their positions effective immediately. that's the story as we know it and we are trying to raise the resident expert for greenburg and if we do, we will bring it to you. >> we got it and thanks for the update. interestingly this story about the margin sales out early this morning, the stock traded higher throughout a day that saw it with pretty whip saw trading. >> almost as a first question, why wouldn't someone as wealthy as he put up the money to sell the shares if he had such conviction in the company. that's what you have to ask. >> five million shares is significant, but look, he is
still there. >> i want to point out something, they have 500,000 shares and prior to the bad news. >> that's a lot of room and he doesn't have a plan in effect. at the same time i think it's important sales with the company. let's not forget and i said this over and over on air. the series of bad events that occurred which was a holder of the company. claiming global economic issues. i understand that's significant. one week on demand. this is a heck of a story. >> let me ask you something. to answer your question, i don't know that he would have sufficient liquidity. the second question i have is if
he is released from the board, is he immediately free sell the balance of his shares? >> that's a great question. he is also the large shareholder in krispy kreme. the shares have risen to keep off the shares. that's potential liquidity. >> what is the position? >> i am driving right now. don't hold me to it. >> go back to driving. that is very dangerous. i believe it might be illegal. >> hands free. don't worry. >> thank so much for phoning in. >> even if the story was out lawyer, he raises a lot of issues and questions. we could have asked those at 9:00 this morning. >> i can't. maybe people were saying this guy has to be out and that's a great thing. a founder with a lot of shares
and maybe makes him vulnerable to a take over. sara lee has coffee and tea business, maybe something they can look at. if you can get past that. looking for the next big thing and it might not be here or even on earth. eric ander is up after the break to reveal why asteroids could fuel a billion dollar industry. stay tuned. [ man announcing ] what we created here.
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>> mining for water and precious metals in space. taking minerals from asteroids greatly enables exploration and knocks down platinum group metals. let's bring in eric ander from planetary resources. i have to say, this sounds crazy. how do you know these things are on the asteroids? >> we have been studying aft roits for decades. we have been mining them for centuries and some of the most valuable deposits are sites of impact on the earth. a lot of these do not occur on the surface.
they are on the early solar system. if you want to get them in high concentrations, we have to go to space to do it. >> these have been out in space and fell to earth? >> i was making a joke. they are near the earth, close to the earth. they are most easy for us to reach and they are literally steppingstones for us to develop and grow and use to explore the solar system. >> i am getting a shout out and i knew that armageddon movie was real. right here and now, i have to assume this was where this whole thing was conceived. circa 1997.
>> james cameron was an investor. it's not far-fetched that it helped make this a reality. >> the industry is now a multibillion dollar industry. they started space adventures and people laughed. how is it they can go to space and pay for it and now we launched several people to the space station to pay $50 million each to do it. people like building their own rockets. the commercial human space plight industry has taken off and over the last few years you sat down and it is about bring resources of space into our sphere of influence on the earth. this was serious. this is absolutely something that is going to happen. >> we are out of time and had so much bricking news, but we would like to learn more about this and how it impacts the trades on
the commodities. hope you will come back soon. eric anderson of planetary resources. >> isn't is easier to be long on the platinum. >> for build it and go to space? >> it's less satisfying. >> if they are more platinum than the earth would know, what would happen. >> like mining platinum. >> worry gas prices down, it's cheaper to go to space. >> all right. >> more fast money straight ahead. ahead. today is gonna be an important day for us. you ready? we wanna be our brother's keeper. what's number two we wanna do? bring it up to 90 decatherms. how bout ya, joe? let's go ahead and bring it online. attention on site, attention on site. now starting unit nine.
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>> let's go back out to las vegas and see what's on tap. anthony, that's a little -- you guys are a little close there. give us the highlights. >> first of all, let me say he is wearing shorts and flip flops. i'm working. >> you have shirts and the flip flops, but the tie and the jacket. highlights. we are short on time.
>> an amazing speaker list and legendary hedge funds and al gore and secretary gates and general jack is coming to the surge. i think the most interesting comment is our viewers will be there. >> at this time tomorrow on what is next for yahoo and bass with everything going on in europe. you won't want to miss that. ca refu
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